31 August 2011

40 days 'till the big one ... maybe.

I just had to type one more time to get my August quantity up. I don’t actually know what I’ll type but as it is the last day of August quantity matters more than quality, doesn’t it? I realise I have not talked about earthquakes for a while. I guess everyone thinks that it is a non event now and life is getting back to normal. Alas no, on one hand I feel that the reduced amount and strength of earthquakes in the Canterbury region is a sign that things are finally settling down. On the other I have the gut feeling that the faults are just absorbing the great stresses that are being piled upon them and will once again let go in an almighty earth shattering (literally) event.

Today is a great example of the latter. After the North Island pinching earthquake news with a 4.4 quake yesterday at only 3Km deep (most are > 50km deep) and various aftershocks, the Canterbury fault lines must have felt amiss and answered back with a 4.7 at 5Km depth. I now feel a big shakeup is going to occur in the latter end of the first week of October. Solely on the experience that around 40 days after that exact location (North-East of Rolleston) had a 5.0 quake Christchurch central suffered its third major earthquake causing even more damage. I will post that and see if I become the next big earthquake seer.

There are several reasons you should not let this disrupt any travel plans to Christchurch

1.       As far as I know, even with the tens of large shakes (and one huge) since the February shake no one has lost their life.

2.       My predictions always fail – Even if I have had evidence of an exact sequence, once I place a prediction to this sequence it will suddenly alter dramatically (This is why I have never won a major prize in Lotto).

3.       I have as much knowledge of earthquake science as I do about the interior design of a remote hut in the Southern Alps (I can guess but likely to be absolutely wrong).

4.       Christchurch is a wonderful place to visit and is worth putting up with the occasional shaky sensation

Oh by the way I did not feel today’s shake either, I think I am truly immune to earthquakes. On the mountain side of things, the mountains managed to grab some snow last night and are once again covered from Peak to Foothills in snow. I am now tending towards preferring fully snow covered majestic views than partly, but the jury is still out somewhat. Still waiting on your views. Especially when the sun reflects of the shiny snow presenting a glowing mountain range in front of  me while travelling down the main highway.

Cheers and blessings


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